Match Prediction: Mousesports - Astralis | Counter-Strike (CS2)

MOUZ and Astralis will meet in the quarterfinals of IEM Cologne 2022. The winner of the fight will go to the semifinals on NAVI, which automatically kills any intrigue. Although for the losing team, the intrigue will disappear forever, since it will go to rest and prepare for the next championships, which will begin only in a month.

Speaking of the content of the match, hardly anyone expected to see MOUZ in the playoffs. Frankly, the team surprised me personally, because with the game that they had for six months, it is difficult to count on a successful performance.

In turn, the Danish team was also not considered any favorite for this championship, since they had objective problems in building their game. Nevertheless, Astralis accelerated quite well during the championship, showing a good pace in the group stage.

And yet I find it hard to believe in MOUZ. The Mice clearly caught the wave in the group stage, and a few days have passed since then. Plus, the opponents could have prepared for a long time for a team that, on paper, is an avid outsider. Therefore, in this case, I believe more in the victory of experienced Danes, who will certainly not be afraid of the big stage, albeit not at home.

MOUZ form

The 14th team of the world ranking was a real revelation of IEM Cologne 2022, if you forget about some Spaniards. Moreover, the European team started the championship with great difficulty two weeks ago, almost losing to paiN Gaming on their strongest map.

Plus, the "mouse" managed to lose to Heroic, as it seemed, depriving themselves of any chances. And yet MOUZ was lucky to be on TYLOO, who are just Chinese.

Although the group stage began for the team with a defeat from NAVI, after which they certainly did not believe in these guys. However, what happened next was a real miracle, as MOUZ shut down Heroic, Vitality, and NIP in turn. What is most interesting, in two out of three matches, the "mice" made a comeback, losing on the first map.

So think about what is wrong with this team, because until recently it lost to Sprout and Eternal Fire.

Latest MOUZ results:

• Victory over TYLOO with a score of 2:0.
• Lost to NAVI with a score of 1:2.
• Victory over Heroic with a score of 2:0.
• Victory over Vitality with a score of 2:1.
• Victory over NIP with a score of 2:1.

Best MOUZ cards:

• Ancient - 89% of wins.
• Vertigo - 67% of wins.
• Overpass - 67% of wins.
• Nuke - 60% win rate.
• Mirage - 58% of wins.

It is worth recalling that the team has stopped appearing on the Dust 2 map.

Astralis shape

The eleventh team in the world ranking also experienced its own difficulties and was definitely not among the favorites of the championship. Moreover, at the start of their journey at IEM Cologne 2022, the Danish team managed to lose 00NATION devastatingly, actually burying their chances in the eyes of their fans.

And yet, Astralis managed to cope with Complexity and BIG further, thus making it to the group stage of the tournament. Here the team was completely transformed, as already in the first match they got a significant victory over FURIA.

Further, the Danes managed to defeat Cloud9, showing, probably, the strongest and most intelligent game for the entire existence of this squad. Of course, we can say that FaZe Clan did not grow together, but we must understand that Astralis already jumped above its head, although hardly anyone expected the team to reach the Cologne playoffs.

Astralis latest results:

• Victory over Complexity with a score of 2:0.
• Victory over BIG with a score of 2:1.
• Victory over FURIA with a score of 2:0.
• Victory over Cloud9 with a score of 2:0.
• Defeated by FaZe Clan with a score of 0:2.

Best Astralis cards:

• Nuke - 83% of wins.
• Overpass - 62% of wins.
• Inferno - 60% of wins.
• Mirage - 55% of wins.
• Ancient - 50% win rate.

I note that the Danish team is increasingly refusing the Vertigo card.

Match statistics MOUZ — Astralis

As part of the last season, the teams had one meeting - at IEM Winter 2021, Astralis won (2:0).

Prediction for the match MOUZ — Astralis

Let's run through the statistics for the last three months:

• The Danish team has the fourth highest percentage of wins in the defense of all playoff participants - MOUZ has the worst defense of the teams represented.
• However, the Mice have the third highest percentage of offensive wins, while Astralis has the worst in a sample of six teams.
• At the same time, the Danes have a great ADR from grenades - MOUZ is the last team on the list.
• The key indicator that characterizes the play of teams is the ability to play out 5 vs 4 situations – 71.7% (Astralis) and 69.9% (MOUZ).

Returning to the subjective assessment of the teams, I personally think that after three sensational victories and a break, MOUZ simply does not have enough energy to turn on again.

In turn, the Danish team takes not only a number of statistical parameters, but also the experience of playing on the big arena. And the crowded playground will surely support the once-stars of the world stage.

Therefore, in this case, I would recommend betting on the victory of the Astralis team.